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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.